Home >> Tech Briefs

Taxi…Take Me to The Moon

Posted March 10th, 2010 by Bruce Bennett
advertisement:

In the words of the late, great gonzo journalist, Hunter S. Thompson, “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” That’s comforting to know because the future of America’s space exploration program has suddenly gotten weird, and the last thing you need when that happens is amateurs calling the shots.

It all started getting weird back in 2004 when President Bush announced that, after nearly 30 years of service, NASA’s space shuttles would be retired in 2010 following completion of the International Space Station (ISS). The plan was to replace the aging shuttles with a new Crew Exploration Vehicle, a.k.a. Orion, which would make its maiden voyage in 2014 as part of the ambitious Constellation program. Those with an aptitude for math quickly realized that left a four-year gap where U.S. astronauts would either have to remain earthbound, or rely on hitching rides back and forth to the space station aboard Russian owned and operated spacecraft.

To those of us who grew up during the cold war – which is what drove America into the space race to begin with – that didn’t seem like such a good idea. Granted, the cold war has been over for decades, and if anyone knows how to run a space taxi service, the Russians do. Since 2001, anybody with a taste for adventure and $20-30 million to burn could buy a seat on one of their Soyuz spacecraft and vacation aboard the ISS. But given the fragile relationship between the U.S. and Russia, the slightest amount of friction could put our entire space program in jeopardy, or at the very least make it hostage to the whims of a foreign government. Kind of a weird approach for the world’s leader in space exploration to take, wouldn’t you say?

But wait, it gets even weirder. When the White House released its proposed 2011 budget last month, one of the items they cut was the Constellation program. It’s not that they don’t want American astronauts to explore space anymore; they do, and they proved it by adding $6 billion to NASA’s budget over the next five years so they can develop the necessary technology to do so. They just don’t want that technology to include new spacecraft for such mundane tasks as commuting back and forth to the ISS or traveling to the moon.

So, just how are our astronauts supposed to get there, aside from hailing a Russian space taxi? With good, old-fashioned American ingenuity and profit-driven, private, commercial enterprise. I kid you not. According to information distributed by NASA, the agency has been directed “…to partner with the aerospace industry in a fundamentally new way, making commercially provided services the primary mode of astronaut transportation to the International Space Station. This new policy harnesses our nation’s entrepreneurial energies, and will create thousands of new jobs and catalyze the development of other new businesses that capitalize on affordable human access to space.”

 “Entrepreneurial energies”? Those wouldn’t, by any chance, be the same entrepreneurial energies that recently led to the near total collapse of two of our three major automakers and many of our biggest financial institutions, would they? The same entrepreneurial energies that exported most of our manufacturing capabilities overseas to capitalize on cheaper production costs, sometimes at the expense of better quality? And if you want to see how well entrepreneurial energies work for fare-paying passengers in a transportation setting, one need only look at what the commercial airline industry has degenerated into these days. Does anyone believe air travel is better today than it was, say, ten years ago?

I assume our astronauts would receive much better treatment from whatever commercial entity is selected to ferry them into space, but the point I am trying to make is this. With NASA designed, built and operated spacecraft, no expense was spared and no stone was left unturned to ensure the safety of the crew and the success of the mission. Yes, accidents happened – space travel is a dangerous pursuit – but it was never because corners were cut. Would a profit-driven, commercial entity go to equivalent lengths to ensure such a high degree of safety and success? Or would they look at the bottom line, weigh it against the risks, and then roll the dice, figuring our legal system gives commercial entities escape options that NASA doesn’t have should something go horribly wrong?

I certainly hope not. But looking back at what our “entrepreneurial energies” have done for us over the last 2 – 3 years, I have my doubts. What do you think?

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

  • Paul of Alexandria

    Those wouldn’t, by any chance, be the same entrepreneurial energies that recently led to the near total collapse of two of our three major automakers and many of our biggest financial institutions, would they?

    Spoken like a true Progressive (and that’s not a complement). The auto manufacturers collapsed because they were under pressure to accept, and accepted, government takeover. Ford, which didn’t, is doing quite nicely. Likewise with the financial companies: while the managers are hardly without blame, a great deal of the responsibility lies in the policies of Congress, the Federal Reserve Bank, and other government agencies.

    The Shuttle was supposed to be an interim solution while NASA and industry developed a fully-reusable launch vehicle that could be used both for government launch and economic commercial launch and truly open up space as a viable frontier. (See G. Harry Stine’s book “Halfway to Anywhere: Achieving America’s Destiny in Space”). Unfortunately, as demonstrated by NASA’s botched handling of the DC-X, NASA isn’t interested in commercial and non-governmental space, it wants space as its own private reserve and playpen.

    With NASA designed, built and operated spacecraft, no expense was spared and no stone was left unturned to ensure the safety of the crew and the success of the mission.
    Funny, tell this to the families of the crews of Challenger and Columbia. NASA deliberately ignored it’s own rules and the advice of engineers for political expediency. On the other hand, I don’t see many commercial jetliners crashing (at least not US ones) for political gain; it’s bad for business.

    Neither NASA nor the military fabricate their own aircraft for routine use (except in very special cases); they purchase a Gulfstream, a C-130, or a 747 and adapt it as necessary. To do otherwise would be extremely foolish and cost-ineffective. Why should NASA treat launch vehicles (at least as far as near-Earth orbit) in any other fashion?

    In the Aeronautics field (the first ‘A’) NASA develops high-risk, long-term technology for use by commercial aircraft manufacturers and other US corporations; it does this very well. It perform exactly the same function with regards to Space: develop the technology and leave the manufacturing and operations to private industry.

  • Joel Baechle

    Joel Baechle
    Jackson, CA

    Paul of Alexandria’s reply is spoken like a true reactionary – and that is not a complement, either. It has by now become somewhat tedious to find strict constructionists ever wrapping their political beliefs around any armature they wish to destabilize. Any problem can be explained away by simplifying or omitting vital facts. Applying these simplified methods to the problem results in failure. Perhaps Bruce Bennett does not give entrepeneurs their due, but the criticisms stand.

    Paul’s points can be refuted with facts, as follows:
    GM collapsed because of bad corporate management. In his book, “Quality Without Tears”, author Phillip B. Crosby details how he took the “zero defects” concept to Japan, where it was received with enthusiasm, after then-president Nixon had rejected the idea as a national business goal. You don’t have to watch Michael Moore’s “Roger and Me” to understand that GM packed its management with relatives, it never fully adapted to the desire for Americans to have efficient and ergonomic cars (a void which the Japanese quickly exploited), and the relationship with the union became untenable. GM also disrupted its Electromotive Division (locomotives), and drove good staff out through nepotism, thus giving GE a strong market opportunity, which it exploited profitably.

    Chrysler had been faltering for years. Good ideas, poor implementation. Indeed, Ford has been doing some things better than the other two, but it is not out of the woods yet. If you want to blame government bureaucrats for putting a burden on automakers, lay it on the expensive safety and pollution requirements. As a survivor of a memorable 1960 auto collision (no seatbelts), I for one am glad of the mandated safety devices!Innovation is the key. Perhaps the S.P.I.R.L. motor, as described in the NASA Tech Bulletin, could provide the profitable technology to lead the way forward.

    So long as any capitalist enterprise is competing against financial interests, rather than focusing on production of goods and services, there will be a tendency to roll the dice. When Kirk Kerkorian was about to buy a majority of GM stock, the speculation was that he could use the cash reserves of GMAC, the lending arm, to pursue more profitable investments. The vultures were circling even then.

    The elephant in the room that no one mentions is the lack of incentive for entrepeneurs to go into space. To loosely quote Lewis Mumford (I think), “any transportation system must be pedestrian-friendly at each terminus”. Destinations without a breatheable atmosphere are not pedestrian-friendly. Anything else is a thermos bottle with people in it. Sure, Queen Isabella funded Columbus’s trip across the Atlantic, and he carried his own food and water, but they could still fish over the side, catch rainwater in sailcloth, and put out a pulling boat and row if becalmed. And it was not a ballistic trajectory – the option of turning around was viable. One could even say that they could generate electricity from solar and/or wind power and electrolyse seawater for oxygen and hydrogen to power fuel cells on cloudy days. But no such option is available in space. There is no new market on the ISS, the Moon, or Mars – they are as consumer hostile as Antarctica. And there’s no treaure worth shipping back, unless they discover Unobtainium. Worth exploring? Sure. Enough to inspire a race of the clipper ships? Not a chance.

    Now we get to the Challenger and the Columbia. Von Braun’s original Peenemunde team knew all along that the O-rings on the SRB’s would eventually fail – it was “when”, not “if”. The crews knew also. This is straight from one the men who worked on the V-2′s, who was my neighbor in Huntsville, Alabama. After Von Braun died, “they no longer had the clout on the hill to get the funding”. Also, the shuttle program was signed “operational” by then president Ronald Reagan, but astronauts knew, “It was always right on the edge, every time.” (Newsweek) The Challenger disaster occurred under RR – a Republican, trying to stress the commercial aspects. The Columbia tragedy also occurred under a Republican – George W. Bush, who furnished the lead-off statement upon which the above article is based. I found it ironic that the debris fell in Texas, not Alabama.

    The NASA bureaucrats who ignored “the advice of engineers” are no different than any other corporate bureaucrats who ignore the advice of their engineers, like at, say, General Motors. Ronald Reagan was a fan of German economist F.A. Hayek, whose book, “The Road To Serfdom”, is well worth reading. Chapter 10, “Why The Worst End Up On Top”, is especially good. Bureaucrats bend the rules for political expediency because that is the nature of their business. That’s how they got their jobs to begin with. Read Federal Computer Week or National Defense magazines, and one will find this to be a common complaint. And if anyone, “crashes . . . airliners for political gain”, it is surely politicians who instigate it, not bureaucrats.

    Concering the airlines, Bush let them swallow their debt obligations after 9/11, even after they absorbed, arguably, the worst public relations nightmare since the Hindenberg. I flew on 10/11 – one month after 9/11, and the flap triple slots on the Airbus were hanging like a wind-racked venetian blind. Upon landing and disembarking, the airline representaives would hear none of – it was hostile. Co-incidence?

    No, the big carriers aren’t losing planes, but who can forget the wrong runway take-off of a regional carrier in North (?) Carolina, or the crash in Buffalo of another regional under icing conditions? The rot reaches into the realm of human resources. Have you been on an airliner lately where the cross-bleed didn’t work, and an external starter was used, like in the old days? What if you get rotor stall at altitude? That’ll be a flight to tell the grandkids about when the pilot zooms out after re-start! Thank you, W!

    Paul’s argument for adapting existing commercial technology is specious. Space flight is not routine – there is simply no commercial base to adapt technology from – this is putting the cart before the horse.

    When NASA, hopefully without highly politicised management, can offer an exo-atmosphere, and round-trip revenue runs, the entrepeneurs will beat a path to their door. After all, they talked people into moving to Greenland, didn’t they? (Hint: It has an atmosphere!)

  • http://www.MODdesign.us Matt Davis

    Good article, good responses and I mean that as a compliment. The fact that this discussion is occurring is a positive sign. We would be here reading this if we weren’t interested in human involvement in space.
    1. Politics: It doesn’t seem to matter who is in office, the rhetoric is utterly divisive and the policy the same. With out the cold war our endeavors in space have slowed right down. Space is one of our impending frontiers and it is important that we cultivate an interest in it and look toward the future. Since the alternative propulsion lab lost all funding it is apparent that political leadership just doesn’t give a crap about this. I might suggest that it is because the amount of time it takes us to design, engineer and develop our due diligence is considerably longer than most politicians terms and so it has little political payback. So where is the payback?
    2. Commercial ops: It was stated that there is little commercial gain in the current level of our involvement in space. I would argue with that. I suspect if going to space were a viable destination many people would pay for it. Not 20-30 million but the cost of a couple of 80th percentile vacations worth. In addition we have the satellite industry. Then we have helium3 and water in the regolith of the moon. Xeno Geology/minerology. Perhaps those commodities will only have value to space farers but just like Formula 1 racing the tech will benefit mankind the planet over. Beyond that… what is the value of knowledge? Incalculably high. The coming hundred years in space will be more like Space Trucker than Star Trek. Get used to it. Many of these tasks will be more cost effectively realized with tele-robotics than by human hands. Considering the cost benefit ratio of projects like Huble versus projects like the shuttle it doesn’t take an engineer or an accountant to see the path. That is exactly the tech that will provide benefits to surface dwellers as well as astronauts.
    3. Private industry: Clearly private industry has a role. At the moment it appears that we have the most important role. If the Fed isn’t going to fund it (and I might bet that the encouragement from the top down is to get the military industrial complex and Nasa working off the same trough), then it is up to private individuals to invent and develop the projects we all want to see in space. The Fed has lots of hurdles to this (regulation)and a track record of divesting inventors from intellectual property (intellectual immanent domain).
    What I see happening is a nation in decline. The shuttle was old. We should have already had something waiting in the wings. It would have been nice to have a lifter that was more environmentally friendly. Having a space race at the expense of our progeny is extremely stupid. Having a space race before we are ready is not smart either. Lets spend more time developing the technology that will help us cross the star gap. That is the big challenge. That being said I personally feel it is short changing future generations to use fission for any terrestrial activity. Not just because we don’t have cost effective or safe means of dealing with the effluent, but also because we are going to need that stuff when we cross the deep black. Have to have something to rub your hands over to keep warm. And the disposal problem goes away, just pick a dark vector and push it out.
    We have a long way to go before that becomes a reality. Lots of engineering to do, better delivery systems, interplanetary shuttles (that stay out of gravity wells), and hubs for commerce, and a possible visit from Niburu to live through. Let’s see what WISE has for us.
    Perhaps the most productive thing we can do is to get NASA into a situation where they are as important to Americans as the military. Instead of the recruiters working our kids over and romanticizing the extermination of other cultures we should idolize scientists and inventors and engineers and designers. Far more productive for American’s well being than turning into an old drug addict with a taste for oil because a few rich people want to control the world. Hope I am still on point. The big factor here that affects all the points presented is efficiency. Until we do more with less energy we are stuck with the situation we have. Those increases in efficiency have been fought tooth and nail by the power interests that will make less money if our society make improvement in efficiency. Until we make those improvements we are stuck with the tech that is bureaucratically approved by entities that have conflict of interest. Until the price per pound to orbit gets down to the point that we all get a ride (say $50-100/lbs)we just have to stay at the drawing board.
    MOD

  • Bill

    You have got to be kidding. The auto companies failed in large part because of the unions. They had to produce tons of crappy cars just to meet their pension and health care obligations. The foreign automakers did not have the legacy pension costs of the domestics, so they fared much better. Ford also had the luck of borrowing several bilion before the crash. Bankruptcy was the best thing to happen to the auto companies, but due to political reasons, they did not take full advantage to get rid of their unsustainable “obligations.” No, it was not “entrepreneurial energies” that doomed the car companies, but just the opposite – bureaucracy and unions.

>> Newsletter

Subscribe today to receive the INSIDER, a FREE e-mail newsletter from NASA Tech Briefs featuring exclusive previews of upcoming articles, late breaking NASA and industry news, hot products and design ideas, links to online resources, and much more.

Your name:

Your email:

Please Subscribe me to the Insider